Monday, April 4, 2011

Mets Season Preview: Starting Pitching

The pitching is where the Mets will ultimately fail this year. Too many things have to go right for them to survive in a division where the Phillies are sporting, on paper, the best rotation since he Braves of the 90's. It could even be better. The Braves also have a very good rotation. The Mets ace, Johan Santana, is out for at least half the season. Not for nothing, but maybe his absence is a blessing in disguise...maybe the Mets will score runs since he's not playing. But the Mets rotation is truly an island of misfit toys.

Will Big Pelf be serving up some W's
Big Pelf looked awful in his first game and I think that he will always be a decent-to good 2nd to 3rd pitcher. His stuff just isn't of # 1 quality. Now that players have caught on to his biting splitter, he now does not have an out pitch. His fastball just isn't good enough. He will probably have a good season but the fact that he is our "ace" is a tough spot.

The real ace could just be the ultimate misfit toy: R.A. Dickey. He looks like a janitor at best and more likely a homeless guy at the park that hangs out near the see-saw. Then he comes in with his hard knuckle ball and the batters are up there thinking "holy shit...what the fuck is this pitch." Dickey's knuckleball is elusive and mysterious. He throws it harder than most knucklers do and it has a ton of wiggle to it. He can also slow it down or even throw a mid-80's fast ball to keep the batters off balance or when he's not feeling his knuckle. Everyone thought his success last year was ephemeral but I believe this will be far from the case. He could end up being one of the best pitchers in the NL and a 2x nominee for "most surprising team ace."

Another pitcher whose stock is on the rise is Jonathan Niese. He has a very good fastball and a nasty curve. I think that he is set up for a very good year, possibly 15 wins. As a lefty, he and Capuano will be essential to the Mets success.

Now the reclamation projects. The often injured Chris Young and Chris Capuano. Both have been All-Star pitchers. For a brief moment, Young was one of the best pitchers in the game. I think it's a lot to expect a full season out of both of them but if they can get  between 20-25 starts a piece that is a brilliant thing. If they pitch the way we've seen in the past the Mets rotation will be one of the surprises of the 2011 season.

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